Russian Oil Exports Hit Lowest Level Since July

The average weekly export volume of Russian seaborne crude oil has experienced the largest drop since July, falling to its lowest point in two months. This decline primarily stems from a significant reduction in imports by major buyer India, while also highlighting the ongoing decline in global crude oil demand in the second half of the year. The continued weakening of global demand, including in major Asian markets, can be seen as the key reasoning behind the sustained softness of international oil benchmarks—specifically, Brent crude futures prices—in recent months.

Statistics show that by November 24, the average daily export scale of Russian seaborne crude over the past four weeks had significantly decreased by approximately 150,000 barrels. This marks the fourth substantial drop in the statistic over the past five weeks, although there was a slight increase in weekly export volumes compared to the previous seven days. Compared to weekly statistics, the four-week average export volume largely mitigates the impact of volatility.

Data indicates that the decline in export volumes is concentrated in western Russian ports, with throughput over the past two weeks dropping by about 25% compared to last month’s average. In the past week, loading operations at Novorossiysk port faced a five-day interruption, likely related to maintenance work, which adversely affected shipments from the Black Sea.

Advertisement

Most of the cargoes from western Russian export terminals are shipped to India, with the average four-week export volumes from the Baltic Sea, Arctic, and Black Sea showing a substantial decline, reflecting a continued decrease in crude oil quantities sent to the South Asian nation. This trend underscores that India's demand is not only declining for crude oil from the Middle East but also for Russia's cheaper crude oil.

As of November 24, the initial inflow statistics for shipments to India were below one million barrels per day. Although inflows may increase as discharge port destinations become clearer, they are still expected to decline by at least 500,000 barrels daily compared to the four-week period ending mid-October.

Before discussions among OPEC+ oil ministers on Sunday, overall oil production, including crude oil and refined products like diesel, has already seen a significant decrease. Observers anticipate that they will postpone plans to increase oil supply to the market for a third time. Russia has pledged further production cuts in October and November to compensate for past excessive crude and product oil production. Thus, in addition to global demand declines impacting Russian crude export volumes, the drop in exports may also partly reflect the efforts to fulfill this commitment to reduce production.

According to one statistical report, Russia's crude production last month closely approached the reduction target set for it within the OPEC+ organization.

Seaborne Crude Oil—Volume of Russian Seaborne Crude Exports (2022-2024)

Additionally, the UK government has added two more Russian insurance companies—AlfaStrakhovanie Group Plc and VSK—to the list of sanctioned entities, following the prior inclusion of three other insurers. Currently, India's government has approved four companies to provide insurance for ships docking at its ports. Furthermore, authorities in London are set to add another 30 large tankers to the list of vessels sanctioned for transporting Russian oil, 14 of which have already been sanctioned by the US or the EU.

Vessel tracking data and port agent statistics indicate that in the week ending November 24, a total of 27 tankers loaded approximately 20.5 million barrels of Russian crude oil. This is a slight increase compared to 26 tankers that loaded 19.8 million barrels the week prior. In the current week, two vessels loaded Kazakh KEBCO crude at Novorossiysk port in the Black Sea, while one loaded at Ust-Luga port in the Baltic Sea.

Tankers loading crude oil at Russian terminals—In the week ending November 24, 27 tankers loaded Russian crude oil

In the week ending November 24, the daily crude transport volume increased by approximately 100,000 barrels compared to the previous week, reaching 2.93 million barrels. This growth was attributed to increased flow through the country’s Arctic ports, while shipments from the Pacific remained steady. Additionally, major buyer India's import volume saw a marked decline, resulting in a consecutive drop in Russia's four-week average seaborne crude export volumes across Asia due to cooling demand.

The less volatile four-week average seaborne crude transport flow displayed an entirely contrasting trend, marking the largest drop since mid-July, with the average daily transport volume for the four-week period being just 3.12 million barrels, a reduction of about 150,000 barrels compared to levels as of November 17.

So far this year, Russia's average daily crude export volume is around 60,000 barrels, approximately 2% lower than the average for the entirety of 2023.

Russian Seaborne Crude—Average Weekly Seaborne Export Volume of Russian Crude by Destination (2022-2024)

In late May, Russia withdrew its export targets and opted to curb production instead, aligning with the oil production goals of the OPEC+ partnership. After the planned reductions were extended for a second time, the country's production target was set at 8.978 million barrels per day until the end of December.

Moscow has also committed to further reducing crude and product oil production in October and November this year, as well as from March to September 2025, to address the output levels that exceeded its OPEC+ quotas earlier this year.

The weekly average price for Russia's primary crude flow rose slightly compared to the previous reporting week, and with a modest increase in weekly export volumes, the Kremlin’s oil-related revenue also saw an uptick. In the week ending November 24, these factors collectively propelled the total value of Moscow's crude exports to increase by approximately $75 million, reaching $1.33 billion.

According to Argus Media's statistics, the export value from Russia's Baltic ports rose by about $2.30 per barrel compared to the previous week. The price of Urals crude loaded in the Black Sea increased by roughly $2.10 per barrel compared to the previous reporting week, while the key Pacific grade, ESPO, rose by approximately $0.90 per barrel. Delivery prices in the Indian region increased by about $2 per barrel.

The four-week average revenue showed an entirely opposite trend, dropping from $1.47 billion as of November 17 to around $1.4 billion per week.

Based on this, for the four-week period ending November 24, the price of oil exported from the Baltic Sea decreased by about $0.10 per barrel compared to the four-week period ending November 17. The primary Pacific grade, ESPO, declined by about $0.20 per barrel. In contrast, Black Sea export prices saw a slight increase, as did export prices to India.